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“StreetRacer” seized on a recent post, to say that if there were no background checks between 1993 and 1998, why did violent crime rates decline so drastically during that period.


The chart below is from the Bureau of Justice Statistics massive National Crime Survey, an annual affair that quizzes people about the crimes they suffered byt did not report as well as the reported crimes.

Notice the precipitous decline in all gun related crimes in 1993, when “Must Issue” Concealed Carry Weapon [CCW} permits were first issued, and 1998 when the National Instant Background Check System kicked in.

And then in 1999 the curve flattens out as resistance to “must issue” grew and the gun banners cranked their anti-gun campaign up again. Fortunately, the shooting community kept after those states that were reluctant to follow more than thirty successful laws, with no failures, and now most States are “must issue” States.

Going back to Florida’s first experimental “must issue” law, her is a chart of Florida’s experience with “must Issue.”

The two spikes resulted from gang rivalries, and the rounded decline at the right of the second spike is the result of Florida’s must issue law. And those States that have followed Florida’s lead have had similar reductions in violent gun related crime.

Mississippi’s murder rate has fallen from the 14’s per 100,000 to a near national average 5.7, with violent crime falling from 490 to 235, both per 100,000 residents while studies show the percentage of criminal victimization reported have gone from 46 percent to more than 70 percent, a fact and factor that makes the reduction in criminal violence resulting from “Must Issue CCW permits even more spectacular.

It takes just twenty sets of results showing a decline in crime after restrictive gun laws are relaxed to give “six sigma” confidence that the 1`st and 121st and the million and twenty first experiment will show the same thing. So far we have 792 State data sets shewing a near constant decline from the inception date of must issue, and not even 1 showing a consistant rise in crime after must issue was instituted.

We also have the testimony of prisoners that the first or second time they looked down the muzzle of an intended victim’s gun they swore off violent crime.

So there is the long and the short of it. Crime fell dramatically after 1993 because so many criminals stopped carrying guns when they were tending to their business of victimizing the very people who insist on treating murderers as well as guests at the Waldorf.


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